Travis Aerenson

About Me

My name is Travis Aerenson and I'm an Associate Research Scientist of Atmospheric Science at the University of Wyoming studying climate change and how we expect it impact regional water stress with Daniel McCoy. I received a PhD at the University of Washington studying cloud radiative feedbacks with Roger Marchand.

My research focuses on clouds and precipiation processes and the ways we expect them to change in a warming climate. I like to formulate simple analytical or data-driven models to help understand the processes impacting cloud radiative effect and precipitation. A portion of my research focuses on predictibility of snowpack in the American mountain west and that atmospheric processes contributing to spread in decadal predictions. Another portion of my research is on how the timing of cloud occurence simulated by Earth system models contributes to errors in their simulation of cloud radiative effect. Most recently, I have been studying atmospheric moisture transport. This work has generated the new Evaporation Dataset of RegiOnal Precipitation Sources (E-DROPS), which tracks moisture transport into each of the HUC2 regions of the United States. This new dataset has yielded interesting findings on trends in atmospheric moisture transport, and how the moisture sources differ for extreme precipitation and light precipitation events.

During my PhD I used a combination of satellite observations and climate model simulations to diagnose the physics that causes clouds and to change in our warming climate, and how cloud changes will continue to impact future warming. Using a combination of satellite observations and model output from the COSP instrument simulator, I performed model intercomparison of projected changes of cloud attributes, and analyzed the biases in modeled clouds, and relate them to predicted cloud changes.

Before my graduate work I studied Physics at Colorado College, where I honed my love for science and the outdoors. During which time I interned at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, doing research on how extreme weather events will change in the 21st century, and reversibility of climate change. These days when I'm not working you can probably find me playing somewhere in the mountains.

Research

Weighted Cloud Top Height observations and model projections measured by MISR (and MISR simulator).

Time of Emergence of Cloud Top Height Trends

It is predicted by both theory and models that the thermodynamic height limit of convection is set by the temperature profile. Thus as the climater warms the maximum convective height will rise in the atmosphere with the temperature profile. We use MISR observations and simulated MISR observatiomns in coupled climate models to estimate when we will be capable of detecting a trend in cloud top height of high clouds.

Related publications: Aerenson, T., Marchand, R., Chepfer, H., & Medeiros, B. (2022). When Will MISR Detect Rising High Clouds? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(2), e2021JD035865. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035865



Cloud Rapid Adjustmnent to Forcing

Cloud formation and attributes change as a direct result of CO2 increase (as opposed to resulting from temperature change). The cloud adjustment to forcing is an important part of the estimaton of the effective radiative forcing. Typically the cloud adjustment to forcing is found using model experiments with prescribed sea-surface temperature and sea ice. We have been testing the effectivness of adjustment calculations from coupled model simulations.

Gregory plot of Cloud Radiative Effect for an ensemble of 5-year long abrupt-4xCO2 simulations.



How do clouds respond differently to longwave and shortwave forcing changes?

It is common practice to study the effects that increasing carbon dioxide (a longwave forcing agent) has on the climate, and with the growing attention toward geoengineering schemes designed to change the amount of shortwave radiation absorbed by the earth, we have been studying the different ways that clouds respond to longwave (CO2) and shortwave (solar) forcing agents.

Related publications:

Aerenson, T., Marchand, R.: Cloud Responses to Abrupt Solar and CO2 Forcing: 1. Temperature Mediated Cloud Feedbacks. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129(12), e2023JD040296. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD040296

Aerenson, T., Marchand, R., Zhou, C.: Cloud Responses to Abrupt Solar and CO2 Forcing: 2. Adjustment to Forcing in Coupled Models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129(12), e2023JD040297. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD040297



Publications

Also see Google Scholar

[14] Werapitiya, G., Aerenson, T., McCoy, D., Brient, F., Elsaesser, G., Song, C., & Zelinka, M. How the hydrological cycle shapes global cloud feedback. (In prep for PNAS).

[13] Aerenson, T., McCoy, D., Keys, P., & Caulton, D.: Precipitation over the Contiguous United States is coming from farther away than in the past. (Submitted to Science).

[12] Aerenson, T., Barahona, D., & McCoy, D.: Bias in spaceborne cloud droplet number concentration retrieval and new alternatives. (in review JGR: Atmospheres).

[11] Nugent, J., Brown, H., Kirby, A., McCoy, D., Allen, G., Aerenson, T., Burrows, S., Caulton, D., Fan, J., Feng, Y., Gettelman, A., Griswold, J., Leung, L., Muelmenstaedt, J., Mahfouz, N., Ovchinnikov, M,. Jones, D., Shan, Y., Song, X., Silber, I., Shpund, J., Qian, Y., Xie, S., Zelinka, M., Zhang, D., Zhang, G., & Zhang, K.: Overview of the Nephele Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for aerosol-cloud interactions hosted in E3SMv3, (in review JAMES).

[10] Song, C., McCoy, D., Molod, A., Barahona, D., & Aerenson, T.: Signatures of aerosol-cloud interactions in GiOcean: A coupled global reanalysis with two-moment cloud microphysics. (Accepted to ACP).

[9] Aerenson, T., McCoy, D., Elsaesser, G., Wu, J., Nugent, J., Brown, H., Mikkelson, A., & Zelinka, M.: Global models predict clouds at the wrong time of day: does it matter for radiation and climate? (Accepted to Science Advances).

[8] Werapitiya, G., McCoy, D., Elsaesser, G., Wu, J., Gettelman, A., Eidhammer, T., Aerenson, T., & Song, C.: Climate Model Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones, (Accepted to Journal of Climate).

[7] Aerenson, T., McCoy, D., Elsaesser, G., & Wu, J. (2025). Drivers of Model Spread in Snowpack Changes Across the American Mountain West. Journal of Climate, 38(22), 6605-6619. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0103.1

[6] Aerenson, T. & Marchand, R. (2025). How Do Differences in the Simulation of Present-Day Clouds Affect Cloud Feedbacks? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130(12), e2025JD044020. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD044020

[5] Aerenson, T. & Marchand, R. (2024). Cloud Responses to Abrupt Solar and CO2 Forcing: 1. Temperature Mediated Cloud Feedbacks. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129(12), e2023JD040296. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD040296

[4] Aerenson, T., Marchand R., & Zhou, C. (2024). Cloud Responses to Abrupt Solar and CO2 Forcing: 2. Adjustment to Forcing in Coupled Models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129(12), e2023JD040297. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD040297

[3] Poletti, A. N., W Frierson, D. M., Aerenson, T., Nikumbh, A., Carroll, R., Henshaw, W., & Scheff, J. (2024). Atmosphere and ocean energy transport in extreme warming scenarios. PLOS Climate, 3(2), e0000343. https://doi.org/10.1371/JOURNAL.PCLM.0000343

[2] Aerenson, T., Marchand, R., Chepfer, H., & Medeiros, B. (2022). When Will MISR Detect Rising High Clouds? Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(2), e2021JD035865. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035865

[1] Aerenson, T., Tebaldi, C., Sanderson, B., & Lamarque, J.F. (2018). Changes in a suite of indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation under 1.5 and 2 degrees warming. Environmental Research Letters ERL 13 035009 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaafd6

Presentations

[23] Aerenson, T., D. McCoy, G. Elsaesser, J. Wu, J. Nugent, H. Brown, M. Zelinka, S. Burrows 2025: "Are we simulating clouds at the wrong time of day?" Gordon Research Conference on Radiation and Climate, Lewiston, ME. Poster

[22] Aerenson, T., D. McCoy, G. Elsaesser, J. Wu, J. Nugent, H. Brown, M. Zelinka, S. Burrows 2025: "Are we simulating clouds at the wrong time of day?" Gordon Research Seminar on Radiation and Climate, Lewiston, ME. Oral

[21] Aerenson, T., R. Marchand, T. Ackerman 2024: “MISR Observed Trends in Cloud Top Height and Constraints on High Cloud Altitude Feedbacks” AGU Fall Meeting: Terra: 25 Years of the Earth Observing System Flagship Observatory, Washington, DC. Poster

[20] Aerenson, T., D. McCoy, G. Elsaesser: “Causes of Model Spread in Predictions of Hydroclimate in the Mountain West” AGU Fall Meeting: Hydroclimate and Extremes in the Western United States in a Changing Climate, Washington, DC. Poster

[19] Aerenson, T., D. McCoy: "How Much Does the Cloud Diurnal Cycle Impact SWCRE?" Micro2Macro Origins of Climate CHange Uncertainty Workshop, Laramie, WY. Poster

[18] Aerenson, T., D. McCoy, G. Elsaesser 2024: "How Might we Improve Predictions of Regional Hydroclimate?" Oxford Workshop on Model Uncertainty, Oxford, UK. Oral

[17] Aerenson, T., D. McCoy, G. Elsaesser 2024: “Can We Do Better at Predicting Regional Hydroclimate?” CESM Workshop, Boulder, CO. Oral

[16] Aerenson, T.: "The Relationship Between Simulated Present-Day Cloud Attributes and Cloud Feedbacks" University of Washington Department of Atmospheric Sciences Colloquium, Seattle, WA. PhD Defense

[15] Aerenson, T. R. Marchand, C. Zhou 2023: "Cloud Adjustment to Solar and CO2 Forcing in Coupled Models" CFMIP Meeting, Paris, FR. Poster

[14] Aerenson, T. R. Marchand 2023: "The Contribution of Mean-State Bias to Cloud Feedbacks in Climate Models" CFMIP Meeting, Paris, FR. Poster

[13] Aerenson, T. R. Marchand 2023: "The Contribution of Mean-State Bias to Cloud Feedbacks in Climate Models" University of Wyoming Department of Atmospheric Science Seminar, Laramie, WY. Invited Seminar

[12] Aerenson, T. R. Marchand 2023: "Using ISCCP and MISR Satellite Simulators to Understand Cloud Feedbacks" NASA GSFC CPC Seminar, Greenbelt, MD. Virtual Seminar

[11] Aerenson, T., R. Marchand, C. Zhou 2022: “Cloud Response to Abrupt Changes in Solar Forcing and CO2 Concentrations” AGU Fall Meeting: Advances in Solar Radiation Modification Research, Chicago, IL. Poster

[10] Aerenson, T., R. Marchand, C. Zhou 2022: “Cloud Response to Abrupt Changes in Solar Forcing and CO2 Concentration” University of Washington Department of Atmospheric Sciences Seminar on Atmospheric Physics and Chemistry, Seattle, WA. Seminar

[9] Aerenson, T., R. Marchand 2022: “Cloud Response to Abrupt Changes in Solar Forcing and CO2 Concentrations” CFMIP Meeting: Cloud Processes and Radiative Feedbacks, Seattle, WA. Oral

[8] Aerenson, T. 2021: “Cloud Rapid Adjustments and Feedbacks to Abrupt Changes in Solar and CO2 Induced Forcings” AGU Fall Meeting: Advances in Climate Engineering Research. Virtual Poster

[7] Aerenson, T., R. Marchand 2021: “Cloud Rapid Adjustments and Feedbacks to Abrupt Changes in Solar and CO2 Induced Forcing” CFMIP Meeting. Virtual Poster

[6] Aerenson, T. 2021: “When Will MISR Detect Rising High Clouds?” University of Washington Department of Atmospheric Sciences Physics and Chemistry Seminar. Virtual Seminar

[5] Aerenson, T., R. Marchand 2021: “Time of Emergence: When Will We See High Clouds Get Higher?” AMS Annual Meeting. Remote oral presentation and discussion session

[4] Aerenson, T., R. Marchand, 2020: “Time of Emergence: When do Climate Models Predict Rising Cloud-Top-Height (CTH) Should be Detected by MISR?” CFMIP Meeting on Clouds, Precipitation, and Climate Sensitivity. Remote submitted slide and discussion session

[3] Aerenson, T., R. Marchand, 2020: “When will we see high clouds get higher?” MISR Science Team Meeting, Pasadena, CA. Oral

[2] Aerenson, T., 2019: “Climate Models and Climate Change Reversibilitiy” Colorado College Physics Department Senior Seminar Series, Colorado Springs, CO. Seminar

[1] Aerenson, T.., C. Tebaldi, B. Sanderson, J.F. Lamarque, 2017: “Climate Extremes in Low Warming Scenarios” NCAR CGD Integrated Assessment Modelling Weekly Meeting, Boulder, CO. Oral

CV

  • 2019-2023 MS and PhD in Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington
  • 2015-2019 Bachelor of Arts in Physics, Colorado College

Download CV here.

Contact

taerenso@uwyo.edu

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